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Sep30
Jobless Claims Increase

These latest numbers are raising some eyebrows.

The number of newly laid-off workers filing for unemployment benefits rose last week by the largest amount since early August, providing further evidence that economy has slowed.

Some pundits are seeing this as bad, but I'm not so sure.

The specifics.

The Labor Department said that 318,000 workers filed claims for jobless benefits, up by 7,000 from the 311,000 benefit applications filed the previous week. It followed two weeks of small declines in claims and was the biggest increase since jobless claims had risen by 10,000 in the week ending Aug. 5.

If you've never worked in a seasonal business, then it might not occur to you that some of those businesses are beginning to pare down their payrolls. That's certainly a possibility.

The increase was slightly higher than economists had been expecting and provided fresh evidence that the economy has been slowing this year under the impact of rising energy prices, high interest rates and a cooling housing market.

The speculators are nervous, but their "fresh evidence" is what we've all seen this year. An economy that's growing slower, but not losing ground.

The economy is being buffeted by opposing forces at present. Recent sharp declines in the cost of gasoline and other energy products have raised hopes that consumer spending will get a boost in coming months as Americans pay less at the gas pumps and thus have more to spend on other products.

That is offset - according to some - by the slowing housing market.

...the nation’s once-booming housing industry, which had set sales records for five straight years, is rapidly falling back to earth with sales and construction dropping sharply.

I imagine that jobless claims will rise more as seasonal employers have less work, and auto industry layoffs build.

But, holiday employment numbers will begin to hit the grid soon, so we'll see.


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