It bolstered the economy too, but since the economists are the one who lead either the cheers or the cat calls, I guess they're important too. Here's the news from AP.
Shoppers persevered at the nation’s stores and malls in August, buying skinny jeans and other back-to-school fashions and giving many retailers solid sales for the month. The outlook for the rest of the year nonetheless remained unclear amid higher energy costs and interest rates and a deteriorating housing market.
"higher energy costs and interest rates"? "deteriorating housing market"? I'm a little confused since I just filled up this past weekend for $2.38 a gallon, interest rates are dropping again, and the housing market is still growing, just more slowly.
Excuse me for my skepticism on the news media, but I used to be one. I know how it can work. That first paragraph I quoted stated that the outlook for the rest of the year remained unclear. Of course it did Kreskin! None of us have a crystal ball. I know I'm sounding like a one-note samba, but we seem to have this fascination with 'speculation'. I'm convinced it's a fallacy, and the more we rely on it, the more trouble we'll find ourselves in.
Now back to your regularly scheduled blog post.
Overall, “the early signs are that back-to-school is doing better than expected,” said Jharonne Martis, an analyst at Thomson Financial. “Parents have budgeted for back-to-school. There is no stopping the consumer.”
That's good. I do hope it's because parents have budgeted, not because parents have charged up even more consumer debt!
The solid performance in August — a time when stores aim to do the bulk of their back-to-school business — is comforting as many analysts expect a consumer spending slowdown in the second half; their concerns were heightened after June’s sales stalled but business rebounded in July, helped by clearance sales of summer goods. After a slow start, business in August gained momentum even as concerns increased about the consumer’s resilience.
The consumer's resilience is directly related to the consumer's pocketbook.
This next quote highlights the danger of speculating, and the roller coaster nature of the economy.
Last week, the Commerce Department reported that sales of new homes dropped in July by the largest amount since February while the inventory of unsold homes climbed to a record high. And according to the latest snapshot of the job market, hiring slowed in July as employers added just 113,000 jobs. That pushed the unemployment rate to a five-month high of 4.8 percent and provided more evidence that companies are growing more cautious amid high energy prices, though they have retreated recently.
That's a pretty gloomy assessment. The problem is, some August numbers came out just days after this article, and hiring was up more than anticipated, unemployment dropped to 4.7 percent and fuel prices have dropped significantly. The writer of the article talks about a "snapshot" of the job market. Tell me, are your personal "snapshots" generally a good representation of who you are? I think not. "Snapshots" don't tell the whole story, and can actually give a false sense of either dread or comfort. If businesses rely heavily on these "snapshots", I believe trouble is ahead.
"...bad news about the economy, particularly the job market, weighed on consumers in August, causing their confidence to tumble even more than expected to its lowest level in nine months, according to the New York-based Conference Board.
That is until the new numbers came out and things looked better.
Don't let the "experts" run your company. Develop your business plan and stick to it. You'll be far better off.
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