Analysis and discussion of issues that impact business

The economic forecast looks pretty good, but apparently not good enough for some.

Holiday sales are expected to rise, though at a slower rate than last year as consumers fret about the declining housing market, according to a National Retail Federation economic forecast Tuesday.

The numbers are fairly confusing, if you're interested.

Keep your hands and arms inside the car at all times...

“The biggest factor driving our conservative outlook this year is the (slowing) housing market,” said NRF Senior Director Ellen Davis. “When people perceive that their homes aren’t worth as much as they were a few months ago, they could scale back spending.”

"Could scale back spending".

Still, total holiday retail sales are expect to rise by 5 percent, compared with a 6.1 percent jump during the same season last year. The gain could surprise some industry watchers who had expected that higher energy prices and economic uncertainty would crimp spending more.

Hmmm, what's different this year than last year? I won't soon forget $3.09 a gallon.

“Consumers have faced a number of economic challenges this year and have taken them in stride,” NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells said in a statement. “Although sales gains will not be as robust as last year, retailers can still expect above-average holiday sales growth.”

If energy prices, which have fallen recently, come down some more, spending could even beat NRF’s current forecast, Davis said.

I just saw gas for $1.99 a gallon this morning. Hmmm...

The NRF defines holiday retail sales as those which occur in November and December at most traditional retail outlets such as discounters, department stores and grocery stores. For its forecast, the NRF examines a slew of economic data including figures on housing, jobs and interest rates.

So, once again, the numbers have me confused. Maybe I'm just not that bright. Some might agree.

“Consumers make small sacrifices all year so they can splurge a little during the holiday,” said NRF President and Chief Executive Tracy Mullin, in a statement. “If gas prices continue to fall, shoppers will find a little something extra in their wallets, giving them even more reason to celebrate.”

 Do I hear a chorus from Handel's "Messiah" rising from the heartland?