Analysis and discussion of issues that impact business

If you're an analyst or a stockholder, this looks like good news.

A warning to procrastinators: Better shop early if you want the must-have holiday gifts.

Of course, if you're a parent, this is not good news. Especially if you normally wait 'til the last minute.

It's still my contention that is spite of what the "experts" say, in spite of the studies, in spite of the dire media coverage, the economy still rides mainly on the state of people's pocketbooks.

In yet another encouraging sign of consumers’ willingness to spend, Scott McCall, chief toy officer at Wal-Mart, noted that high-priced toys like $249 red Mustangs under Mattel’s Powerwheels brand are selling fast early in the season, something that he hasn’t seen in five years.

And that's just one example.

Such encouraging signs are helping to lift the spirits of many retailers, who only this summer planned for modest gains in holiday inventory as they worried about how soaring gasoline prices and rising interest rates would curtail gift-buying. In recent weeks, falling gasoline prices, receding mortgage rates and a rebounding stock market have helped to perk up consumer demand and ease merchants’ worries about the holiday season.

The reason merchants were nervous was because consumers were nervous. Obviously, fears are receding.

Stores are expected to report a strong same-store sales gain of about 4 percent for September on Thursday, according to Michael P. Niemira, chief economist at The International Council of Shopping Centers. That’s higher than Niemira’s original 3 percent forecast. Same-store sales are sales at stores opened at least a year.

For the holiday season, The National Retail Federation forecasts a healthy 5 percent gain in total sales for the November-December period. That’s higher than the 4.6 percent average over the last decade, though less than the 6.1 percent from the year-ago period. Scott Krugman, a spokesman at NRF, said falling gasoline prices were reflected somewhat in the forecast, but he cautioned not to make too much of the trend since it could be only temporary.

We'll see how the prognosticators do this time. More importantly, we'll see how checkbooks do.