It looks like in spite of some economic concerns, spirits will be bright this holiday season.
Bolstered by falling gasoline prices, consumers headed back to the malls to shop in September. And with confidence rebounding sharply this month, strong sales are forecast for the all-important holiday period.
Once again, peoples' pocketbooks are a pretty good economic indicator.
Recent news from the Commerce Department is encouraging.
Overall, retail sales fell by 0.4 percent in September, the Commerce Department reported Friday. But that decline was skewed by the good news that gasoline prices plummeted last month, sending sales at service stations down by a record 9.3 percent.
Excluding service stations, retail sales posted a solid increase of 0.6 percent, the government said, as consumers used the money they saved on gasoline to spend on other items.
Savings might be better, but...
“Households continue to empty their wallets at a very rapid pace,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors, a private forecasting firm.
Let's hope people think ahead to the holiday shopping season, and don't spend every penny they have. January and February still follow December if memory serves me correct.
A second report Friday showed that consumer confidence, which had been depressed by surging gasoline prices, posted a strong rebound in October.
Maybe incidents of road rage after leaving service stations is down too!
Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight, said this decline is like a huge tax cut that will give consumers nearly $100 billion more to spend on other items.
That's quite a wad. Behravesh continues:
“Wage growth is improving, the stock market is doing well and gasoline prices are down. All of this is very good news for the consumer,” he said.
This might also, in part, explain why the stock market continues to soar.
It also might be interesting to note that for most people the economy is doing well, according to national figures. Areas that continue to not see these positive trends might do well to look at local and state-wide laws, regulations, and taxes that might be holding them back.
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